Transdigm Group Incorporated TDG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Transdigm Group Incorporated has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.9B, a +2.3% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.86x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.7% MAPE), suggesting Transdigm Group Incorporated's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.86x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$8.87B
+2.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.86x
Model Accuracy
4.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.2B vs the actual $2.3B — an error of 2.9%.
Note:
Transdigm Group Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.2B | $2.3B | $1.9B – $2.5B | +8.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | $1.8B – $2.7B | +10.3% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | $1.8B – $2.8B | +2.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | $1.7B – $2.9B | -0.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | $1.7B – $3.0B | -2.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Transdigm Group Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9755 | -2.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0418 | +4.2% | +4.2% above trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0046 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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