Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $47B, a +4.8% year-over-year change, based on 57 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($62.07 per $1) and SG&A ($5.39 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $62.07 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5.39 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $12B | $12B | $11B – $12B | +3.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $12B | $11B – $12B | +11.4% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $12B | $10B – $13B | +6.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $12B | $10B – $13B | +4.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $12B | $11B – $13B | -1.5% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0185 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0268 | +2.7% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9608 | -3.9% | -3.9% below trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9977 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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