Texas Instruments Inc TXN
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Texas Instruments Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $17B, a -2.2% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($0.61 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.0% MAPE), suggesting Texas Instruments Inc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.61 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$17.3B
-2.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-2.09 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$0.61 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.5B vs the actual $4.4B — an error of 2.1%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.1B – $4.9B | +12.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.3B | $3.8B – $4.9B | +6.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B | $3.7B – $5.0B | -1.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.3B | $3.6B – $5.1B | -8.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.3B | $3.4B – $5.1B | -3.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Texas Instruments Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0143 | +1.4% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9576 | -4.2% | -4.2% below trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0173 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0186 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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