Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER
Revenue Intelligence Report • 32 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Uber Technologies, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $57B, a +10.5% year-over-year change, based on 32 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 5.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.2% MAPE), suggesting Uber Technologies, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-8.15x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$57.5B
+10.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-8.15x
SG&A Elasticity
-11.51x
Model Accuracy
5.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $13B vs the actual $14B — an error of 6.5%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $13B | $14B | $12B – $15B | +12.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $14B | $12B – $17B | +20.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $14B | $11B – $18B | +12.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $15B | $11B – $19B | +7.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $15B | $11B – $20B | +3.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Uber Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.005 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0346 | +3.5% | +3.5% above trend | 7 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.946 | -5.4% | -5.4% below trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0263 | +2.6% | In line with trend | 7 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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