Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. WBD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $37B, a -1.3% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($4.25 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.6% MAPE), suggesting Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.25 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$36.8B
-1.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.25 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $9.4B vs the actual $9.5B — an error of 0.6%.
Note:
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $9.4B | $9.5B | $9.0B – $9.8B | -6.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $9.3B | $8.7B – $9.9B | +3.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $9.2B | $8.5B – $9.9B | -6.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $9.2B | $8.3B – $10B | +1.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $9.2B | $8.2B – $10B | -3.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9774 | -2.3% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0123 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.002 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0449 | +4.5% | +4.5% above trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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