West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. WST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

For investors evaluating West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. (WST), revenue is modeled as a linear mix of spending on R&D and SG&A, with each dollar of R&D tied to a long-run revenue delta of -19.29 and each dollar of SG&A tied to +11.35. The model uses 66 quarters of data with 2.5% MAPE, and in a holdout test it predicted 797M versus actual 805M, a 1.0% error. The latest quarterly revenue was 805M, and the FY forecast is 3,363M, up 9.4% year over year. Outlook suggests continued growth driven by SG&A efficiency and constrained by the negative long-run impact of R&D, underscoring the importance of spend mix in sustaining the forecast.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $11.35 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$3.36B
+9.4% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-19.29 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$11.35 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $797B vs the actual $805B — an error of 1.0%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

WST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $797B $805B $765B – $829B +6.4% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $797B $752B – $842B +14.1%
Q3 2026 $821B $766B – $877B +7.2%
Q4 2026 $862B $798B – $926B +7.1%
Q1 2027 $883B $812B – $954B +9.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9976 -0.2% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9987 -0.1% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9955 -0.4% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0136 +1.4% In line with trend 15

How Spending Drives Revenue

WST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 66 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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