Analog Devices, Inc. ADI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Analog Devices, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +0.1% year-over-year change, based on 64 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.53x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.27x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.7% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Analog Devices, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.53x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.53% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.27x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$11.1B
+0.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.53x
SG&A Elasticity
1.27x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.8B vs the actual $3.2B — an error of 11.9%.

Revenue Forecast

ADI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $2.8B $3.2B $2.5B – $3.1B +20.5% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $2.8B $2.5B – $3.2B +16.1%
Q2 2026 $2.8B $2.4B – $3.3B +5.6%
Q3 2026 $2.8B $2.3B – $3.3B -4.2%
Q4 2026 $2.7B $2.2B – $3.4B -13.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Analog Devices, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0161 +1.6% In line with trend 11
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9446 -5.5% -5.5% below trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0134 +1.3% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0071 +0.7% In line with trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

ADI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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