Analog Devices, Inc. ADI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Analog Devices, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +0.1% year-over-year change, based on 64 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.53x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.27x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Analog Devices, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.53x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.53% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.27x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.8B | $3.2B | $2.5B – $3.1B | +20.5% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8B | $2.5B – $3.2B | +16.1% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.8B | $2.4B – $3.3B | +5.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.8B | $2.3B – $3.3B | -4.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.7B | $2.2B – $3.4B | -13.0% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0161 | +1.6% | In line with trend | 11 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9446 | -5.5% | -5.5% below trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0134 | +1.3% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0071 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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