Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co has a forecasted full-year revenue of $79B, a -1.2% year-over-year change, based on 67 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.10x). The ARDL model has 5.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.6% MAPE), suggesting Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.10x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$79.3B
-1.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.10x
Model Accuracy
5.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $21B vs the actual $19B — an error of 11.1%.
Note:
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $21B | $19B | $18B – $24B | -4.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $20B | $17B – $24B | -0.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $20B | $16B – $25B | -5.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $20B | $15B – $26B | -3.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $20B | $14B – $27B | +5.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0082 | +0.8% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0204 | +2.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9486 | -5.1% | -5.1% below trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0105 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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