Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's revenue is primarily driven by its operational efficiency and market demand, although recent spending on SG&A has shown a significant negative return, with each dollar spent correlating to a long-run revenue decrease of $30.49. Despite a challenging outlook reflected in a forecasted $23 billion revenue for the fiscal year, representing a 9.6% decline year-over-year, the company maintains a strong market position. However, with a model accuracy of only 28.1% MAPE and a notable discrepancy in holdout test predictions, investors should be cautious about revenue projections. Strategic adjustments in spending and operational focus will be critical for stabilizing revenue growth moving forward.

Next FY Revenue

$22.55B

-9.6% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$-30.49 per $1

Model Accuracy

28.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $4B vs the actual $6B — an error of 33.9%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Note: Archer-Daniels-Midland Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($6B) came in 34% above the spending-based forecast ($4B). This suggests that Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$4B	$6B	$-14B – $22B	-36.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$5B		$-20B – $30B	-19.9%
Q3 2026	$6B		$-25B – $37B	-1.0%
Q4 2026	$6B		$-30B – $42B	-2.0%
Q1 2027	$5B		$-35B – $45B	-16.2%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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