Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 11 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. demonstrates a strong revenue model driven primarily by its strategic investments in SG&A, which yield a significant return with a 1% increase leading to a 1.02% rise in revenue. In contrast, R&D spending shows a negative elasticity, indicating a less favorable ROI in that area. With a current quarterly revenue of $5,359 million and a fiscal year forecast projecting $22 billion, reflecting a 5.9% year-over-year growth, the company is positioned for steady growth. The model's accuracy, evidenced by a low 2.0% MAPE and a close holdout test prediction, reinforces confidence in its revenue projections.

Next FY Revenue

$22.38B

+5.9% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.17x

SG&A Elasticity

1.02x

Model Accuracy

2.0% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $5B vs the actual $5B — an error of 0.7%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$5B	$5B	$5B – $6B	+11.7%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$5B		$5B – $6B	+7.6%
Q3 2026	$6B		$5B – $6B	+0.3%
Q4 2026	$6B		$5B – $6B	+8.7%
Q1 2027	$6B		$5B – $6B	+7.3%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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