Assurant, Inc. AIZ
Revenue Intelligence Report • 55 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Assurant, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.2B, a -19.7% year-over-year change, based on 55 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($0.32 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.4% MAPE), suggesting Assurant, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.32 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$8.22B
-19.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.32 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.4B vs the actual $2.5B — an error of 3.3%.
Note:
Assurant, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.2B – $2.6B | -1.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q3 2022 | $2.3B | $2.0B – $2.5B | -11.1% | ||
| Q4 2022 | $2.1B | $1.7B – $2.4B | -21.4% | ||
| Q1 2023 | $2.0B | $1.6B – $2.4B | -22.5% | ||
| Q2 2023 | $1.9B | $1.5B – $2.3B | -24.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Assurant, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9944 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0287 | +2.9% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.97 | -3.0% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0215 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 12 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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