Albemarle Corporation ALB
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Albemarle Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.7B, a +9.9% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($5.47 per $1). The ARDL model has 11.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 11.4% MAPE, the model captures Albemarle Corporation's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5.47 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$5.65B
+9.9% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-103.07 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$5.47 per $1
Model Accuracy
11.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.3B vs the actual $1.4B — an error of 10.6%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.0B – $1.5B | +3.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | $0.9B – $1.7B | +20.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | $0.9B – $1.8B | +1.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.5B | $0.9B – $2.0B | +10.9% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.6B | $1.0B – $2.2B | +9.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Albemarle Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0225 | +2.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0295 | +2.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9532 | -4.7% | -4.7% below trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9558 | -4.4% | -4.4% below trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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