Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is primarily driven by SG&A spending, with a 1% increase in SG&A yielding a 0.63% increase in revenue, indicating a positive but sublinear ROI from selling, general, and administrative expenses under a log-log model. The model’s out-of-sample test predicted $9.3B versus actual $9.7B (4.0% error), supporting reasonable forecasting accuracy. The latest quarterly revenue is about $9.67B, and the full-year forecast is $39B, a 5.8% decline year over year. With SG&A as the main growth lever but delivering less than proportional gains, investors should focus on optimizing marketing and selling efficiency to protect margins amid a cautious outlook.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Best Buy Co., Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.63x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$39.4B
-5.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.63x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $9.3B vs the actual $9.7B — an error of 4.0%.
Note: Best Buy Co., Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

BBY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $9.3B $9.7B $8.4B – $10B -1.7% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $11B $9.4B – $13B -22.0%
Q2 2026 $9.4B $7.9B – $11B +7.2%
Q3 2026 $9.8B $7.9B – $12B +3.5%
Q4 2026 $9.4B $7.4B – $12B -3.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Best Buy Co., Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0037 +0.4% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0244 +2.4% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9979 -0.2% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9892 -1.1% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

BBY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 60 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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