Bunge Global Sa BG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Bunge Global Sa has a forecasted full-year revenue of $62B, a -12.5% year-over-year change, based on 12 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.77x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 0.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Bunge Global Sa's revenue with exceptional precision (0.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.77x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$61.5B
-12.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.77x
Model Accuracy
0.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $18B vs the actual $24B — an error of 22.5%.
Note:
Bunge Global Sa does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($24B) came in 23% above the spending-based forecast ($18B). This suggests that Bunge Global Sa's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $18B | $24B | $18B – $19B | +36.0% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $16B | $16B – $17B | +41.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $15B | $15B – $16B | +18.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $15B | $14B – $15B | -33.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $15B | $15B – $16B | -35.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Bunge Global Sa's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9964 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0015 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0136 | +1.4% | In line with trend | 2 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0157 | +1.6% | In line with trend | 2 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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