Caterpillar Inc CAT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Caterpillar Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $73B, a +8.5% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($4.10 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.9% MAPE), suggesting Caterpillar Inc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.10 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$73.3B
+8.5% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-10.14 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$4.10 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $18B vs the actual $19B — an error of 4.1%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $18B | $19B | $17B – $20B | +13.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $19B | $16B – $21B | +30.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $19B | $16B – $21B | +11.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $18B | $15B – $21B | +3.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $18B | $14B – $21B | -6.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Caterpillar Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.013 | +1.3% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0036 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9715 | -2.8% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0266 | +2.7% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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