What is CDNS's forecasted revenue?

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is forecasted to generate $6.31B in FY revenue, representing +24.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CDNS revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.2% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.4B versus the actual $1.3B.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. CDNS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by demand for design automation platforms and services, with the latest quarterly revenue of $1.339 billion and an 18-quarter data history that supports a linear relationship between inputs and long-run revenue. ROI of spending shows $1 of R&D yields $10.16 of long-run revenue, while SG&A yields $6.25, indicating R&D investments deliver a higher marginal contribution to revenue. The model delivers a 2.2% MAPE and, on holdout, a predicted $1.4B versus actual $1.3B (about -5.1% error), suggesting reasonable predictive reliability. The FY forecast of $6.3B revenue, up 24.4% year over year, points to solid growth momentum supported by the efficient R&D-driven revenue generation.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.2% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $10.16 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.25 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$6.31B

+24.4% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$10.16 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$6.25 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.4B vs the actual $1.3B — an error of 5.1%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2025	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.4B – $1.5B	+32.7%	✗ Outside range
Q4 2025	$1.5B		$1.4B – $1.6B	+22.6%
Q1 2026	$1.5B		$1.4B – $1.6B	+24.3%
Q2 2026	$1.6B		$1.5B – $1.7B	+26.0%
Q3 2026	$1.7B		$1.5B – $1.8B	+24.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0086	+0.9%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.999	-0.1%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9923	-0.8%	In line with trend	5

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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