Cf Industries Holdings, inc. CF
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Cf Industries Holdings, inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $7.2B, a +2.2% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.49x). The ARDL model has 15.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 15.2% MAPE, the model captures Cf Industries Holdings, inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.49x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$7.24B
+2.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.49x
Model Accuracy
15.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.9B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 1.2%.
Note:
Cf Industries Holdings, inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.3B – $2.7B | +21.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | $1.0B – $2.9B | +4.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | $1.0B – $3.5B | -2.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.8B | $0.9B – $3.7B | +8.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.9B | $0.8B – $4.2B | -0.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Cf Industries Holdings, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.887 | -11.3% | -11.3% below trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9656 | -3.4% | -3.4% below trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0872 | +8.7% | +8.7% above trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.1764 | +17.6% | +17.6% above trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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