Cf Industries Holdings, inc. CF

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. demonstrates a strong correlation between its SG&A spending and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 0.48% rise in revenue, indicating effective allocation of resources. The company's latest quarterly revenue of $1,872 million reflects its robust operational performance, supported by a model that has shown a low prediction error of 1.2%. Looking ahead, CF Industries is forecasted to achieve $7 billion in revenue for the fiscal year, representing a 2.2% year-over-year growth, positioning it favorably for continued investment. Overall, the company’s strategic spending and positive revenue trajectory suggest a solid return on investment for stakeholders.

Next FY Revenue

$7.24B

+2.2% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.48x

Model Accuracy

15.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2B vs the actual $2B — an error of 1.2%.

Note: Cf Industries Holdings, inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2B	$2B	$1B – $3B	+21.4%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2B		$1B – $3B	+4.1%
Q3 2026	$2B		$1B – $3B	-2.1%
Q4 2026	$2B		$1B – $4B	+8.0%
Q1 2027	$2B		$1B – $4B	-0.1%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch