Cummins Inc. CMI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Cummins Inc. demonstrates strong revenue generation capabilities, with $1 of R&D spending yielding $10.95 in long-run revenue and $1 of SG&A spending generating $11.28. Despite a recent quarterly revenue of $8.54 billion, the company is forecasting a decline to $30 billion for the fiscal year, reflecting an 11.7% year-over-year drop. The model's accuracy, with a 4.3% MAPE and a holdout test showing a 5.4% error, indicates reliable revenue projections. Investors should closely monitor the effectiveness of spending strategies as the company navigates this challenging fiscal outlook.

Next FY Revenue

$29.74B

-11.7% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$10.95 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$11.28 per $1

Model Accuracy

4.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $8B vs the actual $9B — an error of 5.4%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$8B	$9B	$8B – $9B	-4.4%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$8B		$7B – $8B	-5.2%
Q2 2026	$7B		$7B – $8B	-13.4%
Q3 2026	$7B		$6B – $8B	-11.9%
Q4 2026	$7B		$6B – $8B	-15.9%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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