Centene Corporation CNC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Centene Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $75B, a +114.6% year-over-year change, based on 29 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.24x). The ARDL model has 5.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.9% MAPE), suggesting Centene Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.24x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$75.1B
+114.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.24x
Model Accuracy
5.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $13B vs the actual $11B — an error of 15.6%.
Note:
Centene Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($11B) came in 16% below the spending-based forecast ($13B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2016 | $13B | $11B | $11B – $15B | +115.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2016 | $15B | $12B – $18B | +130.8% | ||
| Q2 2017 | $17B | $13B – $22B | +144.5% | ||
| Q3 2017 | $20B | $15B – $27B | +83.3% | ||
| Q4 2017 | $24B | $17B – $33B | +117.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Centene Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.962 | -3.8% | -3.8% below trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0016 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9638 | -3.6% | -3.6% below trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9998 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 7 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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