Coinbase Global, Inc. COIN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Coinbase Global, Inc. has reported a quarterly revenue of $1.781 billion, reflecting the challenges in revenue generation from its R&D and SG&A expenditures, which yield negative long-run returns of -$4.42 and -$0.37 per dollar spent, respectively. Despite these hurdles, the company is forecasting a full-year revenue of $9 billion, representing an 18.5% year-over-year growth. With a model accuracy of 11.5% MAPE and a recent holdout test indicating a -9.3% error in predictions, investors should remain cautious but optimistic about the company's potential for recovery and growth in the competitive cryptocurrency market. Overall, the outlook suggests a need for strategic spending adjustments to enhance revenue generation capabilities moving forward.

Next FY Revenue

$8.51B

+18.5% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-4.42 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$-0.37 per $1

Model Accuracy

11.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2B vs the actual $2B — an error of 9.3%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2B	$2B	$2B – $2B	-14.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2B		$1B – $3B	-0.9%
Q3 2026	$2B		$2B – $3B	+46.7%
Q4 2026	$2B		$1B – $3B	+11.1%
Q1 2027	$2B		$1B – $3B	+24.5%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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