Conocophillips COP
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Conocophillips has a forecasted full-year revenue of $89B, a +51.7% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($61.99 per $1). The ARDL model has 46.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 46.1% MAPE, the model captures Conocophillips's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $61.99 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$89.4B
+51.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$61.99 per $1
Model Accuracy
46.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $33B vs the actual $13B — an error of 145.9%.
Note:
Conocophillips does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($13B) came in 146% below the spending-based forecast ($33B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $33B | $13B | $19B – $47B | +131.3% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $20B | $0.3B – $40B | +21.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $22B | $-2.6B – $46B | +55.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $23B | $-5.5B – $51B | +49.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $25B | $-6.2B – $56B | +87.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Conocophillips's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0836 | +8.4% | +8.4% above trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.2351 | +23.5% | +23.5% above trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0352 | +3.5% | +3.5% above trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.1087 | +10.9% | +10.9% above trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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