Conocophillips COP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

ConocoPhillips demonstrates a strong revenue generation capability, with a remarkable long-run return of $63.82 for every dollar spent on SG&A, underscoring the effectiveness of its operational strategies. Despite a recent holdout test indicating a significant prediction error, the company's model accuracy remains high at 99.4% MAPE, suggesting reliability in its forecasting methods. With a fiscal year forecast projecting an 86 billion dollar revenue, reflecting a 66.5% year-over-year growth, the outlook appears promising for financial investors. Continued focus on optimizing spending and leveraging operational efficiencies will be crucial in driving future revenue growth.

Next FY Revenue
$86.28B
+66.5% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$63.82 per $1
Model Accuracy
99.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $32B vs the actual $11B — an error of 184.4%.
Note: Conocophillips does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($11B) came in 184% below the spending-based forecast ($32B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

COP Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $32B $11B $19B – $46B +154.0% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2026 $19B $-1B – $38B +29.8%
Q3 2026 $21B $-3B – $45B +66.7%
Q4 2026 $22B $-5B – $49B +64.1%
Q1 2027 $25B $-6B – $55B +115.7%

How Spending Drives Revenue

COP Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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