The Campbell's Company CPB
Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
The Campbell's Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +4.8% year-over-year change, based on 26 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($5.23 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.2% MAPE), suggesting The Campbell's Company's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5.23 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$10.9B
+4.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$5.23 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.6B vs the actual $2.6B — an error of 1.9%.
Note:
The Campbell's Company does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.4B – $2.8B | -5.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7B | $2.5B – $3.0B | +1.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | $2.4B – $3.0B | +10.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.7B | $2.3B – $3.0B | +0.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.8B | $2.4B – $3.2B | +7.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture The Campbell's Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9966 | -0.3% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0039 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9677 | -3.2% | -3.2% below trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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