Dollar General Corporation DG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 31 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Dollar General Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $47B, a +11.5% year-over-year change, based on 31 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.76x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Dollar General Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.76x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$47.0B
+11.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.76x
Model Accuracy
2.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $11B — an error of 4.1%.
Note:
Dollar General Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $11B | $11B | $10B – $12B | +8.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $11B | $10B – $12B | +10.2% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $12B | $10B – $13B | +11.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $12B | $10B – $14B | +10.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $12B | $10B – $14B | +13.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Dollar General Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9745 | -2.6% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0476 | +4.8% | +4.8% above trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9992 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0008 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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