Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 35 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Darden Restaurants, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a -7.2% year-over-year change, based on 35 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 7.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.4% MAPE), suggesting Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$11.3B
-7.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-1.26x
Model Accuracy
7.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.1B — an error of 3.8%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Darden Restaurants, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $3.1B | $2.5B – $3.6B | +8.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | $2.2B – $3.8B | +1.4% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.9B | $2.1B – $4.0B | -9.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.8B | $1.9B – $4.1B | -8.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.7B | $1.8B – $4.2B | -12.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9495 | -5.0% | -5.0% below trend | 11 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0796 | +8.0% | +8.0% above trend | 11 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9629 | -3.7% | -3.7% below trend | 11 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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