Dexcom, Inc. DXCM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Dexcom, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.6B, a +20.2% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 5.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.5% MAPE), suggesting Dexcom, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.88x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$5.60B
+20.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.88x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.32x
Model Accuracy
5.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.3B vs the actual $1.3B — an error of 2.9%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.1B – $1.5B | +16.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | $1.1B – $1.6B | +24.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | $1.1B – $1.7B | +18.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.4B | $1.1B – $1.9B | +17.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.5B | $1.1B – $2.1B | +21.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Dexcom, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0306 | +3.1% | +3.1% above trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0294 | +2.9% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9603 | -4.0% | -4.0% below trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0032 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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