Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. FCX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. has demonstrated a complex relationship between its selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) and revenue, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 0.22% decrease in revenue, indicating a negative elasticity in this area. Despite a recent quarterly revenue of $5.27 billion and a forecasted full-year revenue of $23 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year decline, the company's model accuracy remains relatively low with a 10.5% MAPE and a significant holdout test error of 21.5%. Investors should closely monitor the effectiveness of SG&A spending as it appears to detract from revenue growth, while also considering broader market conditions that may impact future performance. Overall, the outlook suggests cautious optimism, with a need for strategic adjustments to enhance revenue generation amid challenging economic conditions.

Next FY Revenue
$22.85B
-9.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.22x
Model Accuracy
10.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6B vs the actual $5B — an error of 21.5%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note: Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($5B) came in 21% below the spending-based forecast ($6B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

FCX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $6B $5B $5B – $8B +8.8% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $6B $4B – $9B +8.8%
Q3 2026 $6B $4B – $9B -23.0%
Q4 2026 $6B $3B – $10B -18.2%
Q1 2027 $5B $3B – $10B +2.6%

How Spending Drives Revenue

FCX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 54 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.