Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. FCX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $23B, a -10.3% year-over-year change, based on 54 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 10.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 10.9% MAPE, the model captures Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.
Next FY Revenue
$23.3B
-10.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.20x
Model Accuracy
10.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.5B vs the actual $5.6B — an error of 15.9%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($5.6B) came in 16% below the spending-based forecast ($6.5B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.5B | $5.6B | $5.0B – $8.6B | +14.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $6.2B | $4.2B – $9.1B | +7.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.9B | $3.7B – $9.4B | -22.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.7B | $3.3B – $9.8B | -18.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.5B | $3.0B – $10B | -2.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0563 | +5.6% | +5.6% above trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0437 | +4.4% | +4.4% above trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9756 | -2.4% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0399 | +4.0% | +4.0% above trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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