Fiserv Inc FISV
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Fiserv Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $21B, a +1.4% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.69x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Fiserv Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.69x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$21.5B
+1.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.69x
Model Accuracy
2.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.2B vs the actual $5.3B — an error of 1.0%.
Note:
Fiserv Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | $5.3B | $5.0B – $5.5B | -0.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $5.4B | $5.0B – $5.8B | +4.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.3B | $4.9B – $5.8B | -3.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.4B | $4.8B – $6.0B | +2.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.4B | $4.8B – $6.1B | +2.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Fiserv Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9984 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0206 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9825 | -1.8% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0035 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch