General Mills, Inc. GIS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
General Mills, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $19B, a -4.3% year-over-year change, based on 26 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($5.05 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks General Mills, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5.05 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$18.6B
-4.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$5.05 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.8B vs the actual $4.9B — an error of 0.4%.
Note:
General Mills, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.8B | $4.9B | $4.6B – $5.1B | -0.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B | $4.2B – $5.0B | -11.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B | $4.1B – $5.1B | -5.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | $4.2B – $5.3B | +5.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.6B | $4.0B – $5.2B | -4.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture General Mills, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0056 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0163 | +1.6% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9837 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 7 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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