Generac Holdings Inc. GNRC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Generac Holdings Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.0B, a +17.7% year-over-year change, based on 52 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($3.92 per $1). The ARDL model has 9.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.1% MAPE, the model captures Generac Holdings Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.92 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$4.96B
+17.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-19.30 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$3.92 per $1
Model Accuracy
9.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.1B — an error of 3.0%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.3B | -8.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | $1.0B – $1.4B | +22.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | $1.0B – $1.5B | +15.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.3B | $1.0B – $1.6B | +14.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.3B | $1.0B – $1.6B | +19.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Generac Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0235 | +2.4% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.038 | +3.8% | +3.8% above trend | 12 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.8409 | -15.9% | -15.9% below trend | 12 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0372 | +3.7% | +3.7% above trend | 12 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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