Home Depot, Inc. HD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 59 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Home Depot's revenue growth is significantly influenced by its strategic spending on selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to an estimated 0.81% rise in revenue. Despite a recent holdout test indicating a 6.2% prediction error, the company maintains a solid model accuracy of 4.5% MAPE, demonstrating reliable forecasting capabilities. For the fiscal year, Home Depot is projected to achieve $187 billion in revenue, reflecting a robust 12.2% year-over-year growth outlook. This combination of effective cost management and revenue elasticity positions the company favorably for continued financial performance.

Next FY Revenue

$186.52B

+12.2% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.81x

Model Accuracy

4.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $44B vs the actual $41B — an error of 6.2%.

Note: Home Depot, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$44B	$41B	$40B – $49B	+9.2%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$43B		$37B – $50B	+9.1%
Q2 2026	$47B		$40B – $57B	+19.2%
Q3 2026	$48B		$39B – $59B	+6.8%
Q4 2026	$47B		$38B – $59B	+14.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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