Honeywell International Inc HON
Revenue Intelligence Report • 16 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Honeywell International Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $33B, a -10.6% year-over-year change, based on 16 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($300.54 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Honeywell International Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $300.54 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$33.5B
-10.6% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-494.18 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$300.54 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $8.4B vs the actual $9.8B — an error of 14.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $8.4B | $9.8B | $7.7B – $9.0B | -8.9% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $8.6B | $7.7B – $9.5B | -3.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $8.9B | $7.9B – $10B | -4.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $7.6B | $6.4B – $8.9B | -19.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $8.3B | $6.9B – $9.7B | -15.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Honeywell International Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9956 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.996 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9841 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0049 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 3 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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