What is HPQ's forecasted revenue?

Hp inc. is forecasted to generate $56.3B in FY revenue, representing +2.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HPQ revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.6% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $14B versus the actual $14B.

Hp inc. HPQ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Hp inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $56B, a +2.2% year-over-year change, based on 52 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($5.98 per $1) and SG&A ($4.49 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Hp inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $5.98 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.49 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$56.3B

+2.2% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$5.98 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$4.49 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.6% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $14B vs the actual $14B — an error of 3.7%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$14B	$14B	$13B – $15B	+2.9%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$14B		$12B – $16B	+2.5%
Q2 2026	$14B		$12B – $16B	+6.5%
Q3 2026	$14B		$11B – $17B	+1.7%
Q4 2026	$14B		$11B – $17B	-1.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hp inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0131	+1.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9713	-2.9%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0231	+2.3%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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