Hubbell Inc HUBB
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Hubbell Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.7B, a -3.1% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.75x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Hubbell Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.8% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.75x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$5.67B
-3.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.75x
Model Accuracy
2.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.4B vs the actual $1.5B — an error of 5.9%.
Note:
Hubbell Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.5B | +5.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | $1.3B – $1.5B | +1.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | $1.3B – $1.6B | -4.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.4B | $1.3B – $1.7B | -3.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.4B | $1.2B – $1.7B | -5.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Hubbell Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9981 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9839 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9829 | -1.7% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0207 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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