Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 8 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.7B, a +12.0% year-over-year change, based on 8 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.21x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.21x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$2.73B
+12.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.21x
Model Accuracy
2.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $628B vs the actual $667B — an error of 5.8%.
Note:
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $628B | $667B | $587B – $672B | +12.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $653B | $594B – $718B | +10.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $675B | $600B – $758B | +16.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $694B | $607B – $794B | +15.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $712B | $612B – $827B | +6.7% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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