International Paper Company IP
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
International Paper Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $29B, a +22.5% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($10.89 per $1). The ARDL model has 13.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 13.4% MAPE, the model captures International Paper Company's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $10.89 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$28.9B
+22.5% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$10.89 per $1
Model Accuracy
13.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.2B vs the actual $6.0B — an error of 3.3%.
Note:
International Paper Company does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.2B | $6.0B | $4.8B – $7.6B | +58.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $6.6B | $4.6B – $8.6B | +24.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $7.0B | $4.5B – $9.4B | +13.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $7.6B | $4.8B – $10B | +22.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $7.8B | $4.6B – $11B | +29.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture International Paper Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0204 | +2.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9904 | -1.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0237 | +2.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0737 | +7.4% | +7.4% above trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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