L3harris Technologies, Inc. LHX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
L3harris Technologies, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $28B, a +31.3% year-over-year change, based on 26 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks L3harris Technologies, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.2% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Next FY Revenue
$28.2B
+31.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-16.86x
Model Accuracy
2.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.7B vs the actual $5.7B — an error of 1.6%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
L3harris Technologies, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B | $5.7B | $5.5B – $6.0B | +8.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $6.1B | $5.6B – $6.5B | +14.5% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $6.7B | $6.2B – $7.3B | +30.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $7.3B | $6.6B – $8.0B | +33.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | $7.3B – $9.2B | +45.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture L3harris Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0053 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0416 | +4.2% | +4.2% above trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9977 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0055 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 6 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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