Mosaic Co MOS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mosaic Co has a forecasted full-year revenue of $13B, a +5.0% year-over-year change, based on 57 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($19.45 per $1). The ARDL model has 7080.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 7080.5% MAPE, the model captures Mosaic Co's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $19.45 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$12.7B
+5.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$19.45 per $1
Model Accuracy
7080.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.4B vs the actual $3.0B — an error of 13.0%.
Note:
Mosaic Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | $3.0B | $1.8B – $4.9B | +19.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.1B | $0.8B – $5.3B | +17.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.0B | $0.3B – $5.8B | +0.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.3B | $0.1B – $6.5B | -4.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.2B | $-0.3B – $6.8B | +9.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mosaic Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.2185 | +21.8% | +21.8% above trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9698 | -3.0% | -3.0% below trend | 10 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.7994 | -20.1% | -20.1% below trend | 11 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.1825 | +18.2% | +18.2% above trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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