Mosaic Co MOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 35 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Mosaic Co's revenue growth is significantly influenced by its SG&A expenditures, with a 1% increase in spending leading to a 0.77% rise in revenue, highlighting the effectiveness of its investment strategy. Despite a recent quarterly revenue of $2.974 billion falling short of expectations, the company projects a strong FY forecast of $15 billion, reflecting a 21.7% year-over-year increase. This outlook suggests a robust demand for its products and a positive return on investment from its operational spending. Investors should consider the potential for recovery and growth as the company navigates market conditions.

Next FY Revenue

$14.66B

+21.7% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.77x

Model Accuracy

12.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $4B vs the actual $3B — an error of 18.0%.

Note: Mosaic Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($3B) came in 18% below the spending-based forecast ($4B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$4B	$3B	$3B – $5B	+24.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$4B		$2B – $5B	+36.2%
Q3 2026	$4B		$2B – $6B	+20.8%
Q4 2026	$4B		$2B – $7B	+7.1%
Q4 2026	$4B		$2B – $7B	+26.6%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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