Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's revenue is primarily driven by its strategic investments in SG&A, demonstrating a notable elasticity where a 1% increase in spending results in a 0.39% rise in revenue. Despite a recent holdout test predicting a revenue of $34,259M versus the actual $32,574M, the company's model maintains an 11.0% MAPE, indicating a reasonable level of accuracy in revenue forecasting. For the fiscal year, the company projects a revenue of $134B, reflecting a modest 0.7% year-over-year growth, suggesting a stable outlook amid market fluctuations. Investors can expect that continued investment in operational efficiencies will enhance ROI and support revenue growth moving forward.

Next FY Revenue
$133.66B
+0.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.39x
Model Accuracy
11.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $34B vs the actual $33B — an error of 5.2%.
Note: Marathon Petroleum Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

MPC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $34B $33B $26B – $46B +3.4% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $34B $22B – $51B +7.3%
Q3 2026 $34B $20B – $55B -0.9%
Q4 2026 $33B $19B – $59B -4.5%
Q1 2027 $33B $17B – $63B +1.5%

How Spending Drives Revenue

MPC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch