Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's revenue is primarily driven by its strategic investments in SG&A, demonstrating a notable elasticity where a 1% increase in spending results in a 0.39% rise in revenue. Despite a recent holdout test predicting a revenue of $34,259M versus the actual $32,574M, the company's model maintains an 11.0% MAPE, indicating a reasonable level of accuracy in revenue forecasting. For the fiscal year, the company projects a revenue of $134B, reflecting a modest 0.7% year-over-year growth, suggesting a stable outlook amid market fluctuations. Investors can expect that continued investment in operational efficiencies will enhance ROI and support revenue growth moving forward.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $34B | $33B | $26B – $46B | +3.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $34B | $22B – $51B | +7.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $34B | $20B – $55B | -0.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $33B | $19B – $59B | -4.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $33B | $17B – $63B | +1.5% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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