Match Group, Inc. MTCH
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Match Group, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.8B, a +8.5% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($2.94 per $1) and SG&A ($0.93 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.9% MAPE), suggesting Match Group, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $2.94 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.93 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.9B | $0.9B | $0.8B – $1.0B | +6.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.9B | $0.8B – $1.0B | +12.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.0B | $0.8B – $1.1B | +10.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $0.9B | $0.8B – $1.1B | +3.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $0.9B | $0.8B – $1.1B | +7.9% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0304 | +3.0% | +3.0% above trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0011 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9818 | -1.8% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0022 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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