Mettler-Toledo International Inc. MTD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mettler-Toledo International Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.2B, a +3.3% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($5.07 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.3% MAPE), suggesting Mettler-Toledo International Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5.07 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$4.16B
+3.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-7.32 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$5.07 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.1B — an error of 6.9%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.1B | +0.6% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.0B | $0.9B – $1.1B | +10.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.0B | $0.9B – $1.1B | +4.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.1B | $0.9B – $1.2B | +3.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.2B | -3.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mettler-Toledo International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0141 | +1.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0212 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9761 | -2.4% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9854 | -1.5% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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