Nucor Corp NUE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Nucor Corp has a forecasted full-year revenue of $28B, a -13.2% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($15.14 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.6% MAPE), suggesting Nucor Corp's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $15.14 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$28.2B
-13.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$15.14 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.8B vs the actual $7.7B — an error of 0.9%.
Note:
Nucor Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $7.8B | $7.7B | $7.1B – $8.4B | +9.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $7.4B | $6.5B – $8.3B | -5.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $7.2B | $6.1B – $8.3B | -14.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $6.9B | $5.6B – $8.2B | -18.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $6.7B | $5.3B – $8.1B | -12.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Nucor Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0017 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9861 | -1.4% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.026 | +2.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0069 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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