Nxp Semiconductors N.v. NXPI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

NXP Semiconductors N.V. has demonstrated a strong return on investment in research and development, with each dollar spent generating approximately $22.02 in long-run revenue, while sales and general administrative expenses negatively impact revenue by $4.29 per dollar spent. The company's latest quarterly revenue of $3.335 billion reflects a solid performance, although a forecasted annual revenue of $11 billion indicates a decline of 7.7% year-over-year. Despite a holdout test showing a 9.4% prediction error, the company's revenue model maintains a low 2.9% MAPE, suggesting reliable forecasting capabilities. Investors should consider the effective R&D strategy as a key driver for future growth amidst current revenue challenges.

Next FY Revenue

$11.32B

-7.7% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$22.02 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$-4.29 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3B vs the actual $3B — an error of 9.4%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3B	$3B	$3B – $3B	-2.9%	✗ Outside range
Q1 2026	$3B		$3B – $3B	-2.1%
Q2 2026	$3B		$2B – $3B	-4.5%
Q3 2026	$3B		$3B – $3B	-9.0%
Q4 2026	$3B		$2B – $3B	-14.2%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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