Nxp Semiconductors N.v. NXPI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Nxp Semiconductors N.v. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a -7.7% year-over-year change, based on 29 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($19.17 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Nxp Semiconductors N.v.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $19.17 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation.
Next FY Revenue
$11.3B
-7.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$19.17 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-2.98 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.3B — an error of 9.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $3.3B | $2.8B – $3.2B | -2.9% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8B | $2.5B – $3.0B | -2.1% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.8B | $2.5B – $3.1B | -4.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | $2.5B – $3.3B | -9.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.9B | $2.4B – $3.3B | -14.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Nxp Semiconductors N.v.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0227 | +2.3% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9831 | -1.7% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0066 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0028 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 6 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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