What is PNR's forecasted revenue?

Pentair Plc is forecasted to generate $4.31B in FY revenue, representing +3.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the PNR revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 6.7% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.0B versus the actual $1.0B.

Pentair Plc PNR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Pentair Plc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.3B, a +3.2% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($14.21 per $1) and SG&A ($4.45 per $1). The ARDL model has 6.7% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.7% MAPE), suggesting Pentair Plc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $14.21 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.45 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$4.31B

+3.2% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$14.21 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$4.45 per $1

Model Accuracy

6.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.0B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 2.6%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.0B	$1.0B	$0.9B – $1.2B	+7.6%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.3B	+2.6%
Q2 2026	$1.1B		$0.8B – $1.4B	-2.0%
Q3 2026	$1.1B		$0.7B – $1.5B	+5.6%
Q4 2026	$1.1B		$0.7B – $1.5B	+7.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pentair Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.005	+0.5%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9621	-3.8%	-3.8% below trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9918	-0.8%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0406	+4.1%	+4.1% above trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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