Target Corporation TGT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Target Corporation's revenue is primarily driven by its strategic spending on selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which generate an impressive long-run return of $5.17 for every dollar invested. With a strong track record reflected in a 2.7% MAPE accuracy and a close holdout test prediction, the company demonstrates solid financial forecasting capabilities. For the fiscal year, Target is projecting a revenue of $103 billion, representing a slight decline of 1.7% year-over-year. Investors can expect a stable revenue generation model, although attention should be paid to market conditions that may affect future growth.

Next FY Revenue
$103.48B
-1.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$5.17 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $25B vs the actual $25B — an error of 2.4%.
Note: Target Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

TGT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $25B $25B $23B – $26B -3.9% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $29B $26B – $31B -7.8%
Q2 2026 $25B $22B – $27B +3.7%
Q3 2026 $25B $22B – $28B +0.0%
Q4 2026 $25B $22B – $28B -1.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

TGT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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