What is TJX's forecasted revenue?

The Tjx Companies, Inc. is forecasted to generate $56.2B in FY revenue, representing -4.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TJX revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.5% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $14B versus the actual $15B.

The Tjx Companies, Inc. TJX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is anchored in the off-price merchandising model and an expansive store network, which supports durable top-line growth. The SG&A spend shows a strong implied ROI, with $1 of SG&A generating $4.48 of long-run revenue, indicating efficient cost-to-revenue leverage. The model is linear with 3.5% MAPE across 57 quarters, but a holdout produced a 14B forecast vs 15B actual (5.4% error), signaling reasonable predictability with some quarterly volatility. The FY revenue forecast is about $56B, down roughly 4.7% year over year, implying a cautious near-term outlook even as promotions and store economics support revenue stability.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.5% MAPE), suggesting The Tjx Companies, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.48 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$56.2B

-4.7% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$4.48 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $14B vs the actual $15B — an error of 5.4%.

Note: The Tjx Companies, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$14B	$15B	$13B – $15B	+1.7%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$14B		$13B – $15B	-15.5%
Q2 2026	$14B		$13B – $16B	+7.7%
Q3 2026	$14B		$12B – $16B	-2.0%
Q4 2026	$14B		$12B – $16B	-6.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture The Tjx Companies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9998	-0.0%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.018	+1.8%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.021	+2.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0127	+1.3%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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