Tapestry, Inc. TPR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Tapestry, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $7.1B, a -11.5% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.62x). The ARDL model has 5.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.2% MAPE), suggesting Tapestry, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.62x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$7.07B
-11.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.62x
Model Accuracy
5.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.3B vs the actual $2.5B — an error of 6.2%.
Note:
Tapestry, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.0B – $2.7B | +55.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B | $1.3B – $2.0B | -25.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | $1.3B – $2.1B | +6.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | $1.7B – $2.9B | +30.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.5B | $1.1B – $2.1B | -39.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Tapestry, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0022 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0189 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9999 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch