Trimble Inc. TRMB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by disciplined spending in R&D and SG&A, with each $1 of R&D spending generating about $21.43 of long-run revenue and each $1 of SG&A generating about $3.55. The model is linear but exhibits questionable accuracy overall (MAPE 301.1%), though a holdout test on the latest quarter predicted $905M versus $970M actual, a 6.7% error. The FY revenue forecast is $3,079M, down 14.2% year over year, signaling near-term headwinds. Investors should note the outsized ROI on R&D relative to SG&A, suggesting growth upside if demand supports continued investment, but the revenue decline and model reliability warrant cautious interpretation.

Investment Thesis

At 301.1% MAPE, the model captures Trimble Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $21.43 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.55 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$3.08B
-14.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$21.43 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$3.55 per $1
Model Accuracy
301.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $905B vs the actual $970B — an error of 6.7%.

Revenue Forecast

TRMB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 2026 $905B $970B $686B – $1124B -8.0% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $784B $475B – $1093B -6.7%
Q3 2026 $763B $384B – $1141B -12.9%
Q4 2026 $767B $330B – $1205B -14.8%
Q1 2027 $765B $276B – $1254B -21.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Trimble Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.027 +2.7% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0165 +1.7% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9657 -3.4% -3.4% below trend 15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9995 -0.0% In line with trend 15

How Spending Drives Revenue

TRMB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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