What is TSN's forecasted revenue?

Tyson Foods, Inc. is forecasted to generate $54.7B in FY revenue, representing -0.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TSN revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.3% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $14B versus the actual $14B.

Tyson Foods, Inc. TSN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue appears to be driven primarily by SG&A spending, with a log-log elasticity of about 0.22 for every 1% rise in SG&A translating into roughly 0.22% higher revenue; R&D data are not available. The model shows reasonable accuracy (MAPE 3.3%), and holdout testing yields a close forecast (predicted 14.0B vs actual 14.0B, 4.0% error) against the latest quarterly revenue of 14.313B. The FY forecast stands at about 55B in revenue, down 0.4% year-over-year, implying a stable but mildly contracting revenue trajectory relative to an approximate 57B annualized run rate from the latest quarter. ROI on SG&A investments appears modest given the elasticity, underscoring the need for disciplined optimization of selling, general, and administrative spend to support margins as growth remains muted.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.3% MAPE), suggesting Tyson Foods, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.22x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$54.7B

-0.4% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.22x

Model Accuracy

3.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $14B vs the actual $14B — an error of 4.0%.

Note: Tyson Foods, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2025	$14B	$14B	$13B – $15B	+3.0%	✓ In range
Q4 2025	$14B		$12B – $15B	+0.7%
Q1 2026	$14B		$12B – $16B	+4.7%
Q2 2026	$14B		$12B – $16B	-1.7%
Q3 2026	$14B		$11B – $16B	-4.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tyson Foods, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0932	+9.3%	+9.3% above trend	2
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9924	-0.8%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9876	-1.2%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0221	+2.2%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Consumer Defensive

CL PEP IFF MDLZ DLTR ADM COST TAP