What is TTD's forecasted revenue?

Trade Desk, Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.33B in FY revenue, representing +15.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TTD revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 8.7% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $829B versus the actual $847B.

Trade Desk, Inc. TTD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Trade Desk, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.3B, a +15.1% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($5.81 per $1) and SG&A ($2.05 per $1). The ARDL model has 8.7% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 8.7% MAPE, the model captures Trade Desk, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $5.81 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.05 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$3.33B

+15.1% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$5.81 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$2.05 per $1

Model Accuracy

8.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $829B vs the actual $847B — an error of 2.1%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$829B	$847B	$775B – $883B	+11.9%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$737B		$661B – $813B	+19.6%
Q3 2026	$817B		$724B – $911B	+17.8%
Q4 2026	$845B		$738B – $953B	+14.3%
Q1 2027	$935B		$814B – $1055B	+10.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Trade Desk, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9923	-0.8%	In line with trend	8
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0409	+4.1%	+4.1% above trend	8
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9514	-4.9%	-4.9% below trend	8
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.984	-1.6%	In line with trend	8

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Technology

SNPS DELL WDAY KLAC QCOM GOOG CDW IBM