Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 63 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06
Ulta Beauty, Inc. has demonstrated a strong correlation between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 0.90% rise in revenue, highlighting the effectiveness of its spending strategy. Despite a projected FY revenue of $12 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1% year-over-year, the company maintains a solid revenue base, evidenced by its latest quarterly revenue of $2.858 billion. The model's accuracy, with a 3.5% MAPE and a close holdout test prediction, suggests reliable forecasting capabilities. Investors should consider the company's ability to leverage its operational expenditures for sustained revenue generation amidst a challenging market environment.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3B | $3B | $2B – $3B | +8.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | $3B – $4B | -11.2% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $3B | $2B – $3B | +1.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3B | $2B – $4B | +5.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3B | $2B – $4B | +2.2% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch