Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 63 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Ulta Beauty, Inc. has demonstrated a strong correlation between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A leading to a 0.90% rise in revenue, highlighting the effectiveness of its spending strategy. Despite a projected FY revenue of $12 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1% year-over-year, the company maintains a solid revenue base, evidenced by its latest quarterly revenue of $2.858 billion. The model's accuracy, with a 3.5% MAPE and a close holdout test prediction, suggests reliable forecasting capabilities. Investors should consider the company's ability to leverage its operational expenditures for sustained revenue generation amidst a challenging market environment.

Next FY Revenue
$11.85B
-1.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.90x
Model Accuracy
3.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3B vs the actual $3B — an error of 4.0%.
Note: Ulta Beauty, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

ULTA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3B $3B $2B – $3B +8.4% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $3B $3B – $4B -11.2%
Q2 2026 $3B $2B – $3B +1.4%
Q3 2026 $3B $2B – $4B +5.8%
Q4 2026 $3B $2B – $4B +2.2%

How Spending Drives Revenue

ULTA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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