Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 63 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a -1.1% year-over-year change, based on 63 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.95x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.5% MAPE), suggesting Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.95x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$11.9B
-1.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.95x
Model Accuracy
3.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.7B vs the actual $2.9B — an error of 4.0%.
Note:
Ulta Beauty, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.5B – $3.0B | +8.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | $2.7B – $3.6B | -11.2% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.9B | $2.4B – $3.5B | +1.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.0B | $2.4B – $3.6B | +5.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.9B | $2.3B – $3.7B | +2.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0094 | +0.9% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0032 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0173 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9917 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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