United Rentals, Inc. URI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

In a log-log framework, revenue is driven by SG&A spending with an elasticity of 1.20: a 1% increase in SG&A predicts a 1.20% uplift in revenue, suggesting SG&A investments are a key growth lever, with model MAPE at 3.3%. Holdout testing shows the model predicted 4.30B versus 4.20B actual, a -2.1% error, indicating credible out-of-sample performance. Latest quarterly revenue is 4.208B, and the full-year forecast of 18B implies about 9.7% year-over-year growth, signaling solid momentum. The implied ROI of SG&A spending appears favorable within this framework, though true profitability depends on margins and other costs, and the lack of R&D data leaves some drivers unquantified; nonetheless the growth trajectory suggests a constructive outlook for investors.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.3% MAPE), suggesting United Rentals, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.20x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$17.7B
+9.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.20x
Model Accuracy
3.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.3B vs the actual $4.2B — an error of 2.1%.
Note: United Rentals, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

URI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $4.3B $4.2B $4.0B – $4.6B +4.9% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $4.2B $3.7B – $4.7B +12.1%
Q3 2026 $4.3B $3.8B – $4.9B +9.2%
Q4 2026 $4.5B $3.9B – $5.3B +7.4%
Q1 2027 $4.6B $3.9B – $5.5B +10.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture United Rentals, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0016 +0.2% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0118 +1.2% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9642 -3.6% -3.6% below trend 14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0207 +2.1% In line with trend 14

How Spending Drives Revenue

URI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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